Jonathan Simpson: Stable labour market gives NI employers room to plan for change

 

Jonathan Simpson: Stable labour market gives NI employers room to plan for change

Jonathan Simpson

Northern Ireland’s labour market has continued to demonstrate resilience, maintaining a broadly stable trajectory despite a challenging economic environment.

Over the past 12 months, we have seen an uptick in employment, as indicated by both payrolled employee numbers from the HMRC payroll data and employee jobs from the QES. However, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) reports little movement in employment, unemployment or economic inactivity over the year.

Against a backdrop of ongoing cost pressures for employers, this relative stability highlights the underlying strength and resilience of the labour market.

Pay growth has remained a notable feature of Northern Ireland’s labour market over the past year, with median monthly earnings continuing to rise. 

Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that Northern Ireland employees had a median monthly pay of £2,509 in August 2026, an increase of £16 over the month and an increase of £133 over the year. 

This ongoing upward pressure on pay presents employers with the difficult task of meeting employee expectations while managing increasing business costs.

The latest Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period May to July 2026 was estimated from the LFS at 2.4 per cent. This represents an increase of 0.6 per cent over the quarter and an increase of 0.1 per cent over the year. 

The proportion of people in work increased by 0.2 per cent over the quarter and increased by 0.4 per cent over the year to 72.2 per cent. The combination of the figures shows a relatively stable environment for the Northern Ireland labour market.

Northern Ireland employers are entering a period of continued workplace change. While developments in Great Britain continue to influence expectations, the proposed Good Jobs Employment Rights Bill could bring a distinctly local layer of reform.

Combined with ongoing cost pressures, this is likely to place greater emphasis on proactive workforce planning, effective employee engagement and careful management of organisational change.

Jonathan Simpson is director of the employment team at DWF Belfast

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